Scenario
A scenario is a coherent description of a possible future, built from assumptions that are made explicit. Several scenarios together show the space in which a decision has to hold up. Instead of predicting the future, they prepare for several. Good scenarios differ clearly from one another and still stay plausible.
The method became widely known through Pierre Wack and the scenario work at Shell in the 1970s.
Among the several dozen scenario processes Jonas Drechsel has guided are those for GDV, U-Institut, HTW, WDR, VW, Novo Nordisk, the EU and the foundation of a well-known NGO. The GDV scenario report describes three scenarios for AI-supported insurance sales. In the related workshop “Vertrieb der Zukunft” (sales of the future), one participant said: “Today I got a whole set of scenarios with lots in them that bothers me. That’s great, because now I have something to work through.”
Guiding questions
- Which assumptions are built into each scenario?
- What would you decide differently if scenario B happens?